Bitcoin Price Estimation using Multiple Linear Regression and Neural Networks

Main Article Content

Manuel Humberto Díaz López
Andrea King-Domínguez
Luis Améstica-Rivas

Abstract

Various studies have focused on estimating the price of cryptocurrencies using time series models and static variables. This study focuses on Bitcoin price prediction, using a model that combines multiple linear regression and neural networks. This approach makes it possible to identify the factors that influence Bitcoin volatility and, through a dynamic selection of variables, to constantly detect the most relevant set of characteristics for prediction. Likewise, the amount of data is optimized to improve precision and avoid overuse of historical information. The combination of these techniques captures underlying patterns and trends, increasing the reliability of predictions, with an accuracy of 88%. However, it is crucial to consider the need for continuous evaluations to adapt to changing market conditions. This approach provides a more accurate tool for making informed decisions in a highly volatile market.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
Díaz López , M. H. ., King-Domínguez , A. ., & Améstica-Rivas, L. (2023). Bitcoin Price Estimation using Multiple Linear Regression and Neural Networks. PODIUM, (44), 119–132. https://doi.org/10.31095/podium.2023.44.8
Section
Scientific articles
Author Biographies

Manuel Humberto Díaz López , Universidad del Bío - Bío

Magíster en Gestión de Empresa, Universidad del Bío-Bío. Docente - investigador, Universidad del Bío-Bío - Chile.

Andrea King-Domínguez , Universidad del Bío - Bío

Doctora en Administración y Dirección de Empresas, Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña. Docente - investigador, Universidad del Bío-Bío - Chile. 

Luis Améstica-Rivas, Universidad del Bío - Bío

Doctor en Administración y Dirección de Empresas, Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña. Docente - investigador, Universidad del Bío-Bío - Chile. 

References

Almeida, J., y Gonçalves, T. C. (2023). A Decade of Cryptocurrency Investment Literature: A Cluster-Based Systematic Analysis. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(2), 71. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11020071

Anamika, M. C., y Subramaniam, S. (2023). Does sentiment impact cryptocurrency? Journal of Behavioral Finance, 24(2), 202–218. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2021.1950723

Balcilar, M., Bouri, E., Gupta, R., y Roubaud, D. (2017). Can Volume Predict Bitcoin Returns and Volatility? A Quantiles-Based Approach. Economic Modelling, 64, 74–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.019

Chuang, C. C., Kuan, C. M., y Lin, H. Y. (2009). Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33(7), 1351–1360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.02.013

Dey, P., Hossain, E., Hossain, M. I., Chowdhury, M. A., Alam, M. S., Hossain, M. S., y Andersson, K. (2021). Comparative analysis of recurrent neural networks in stock price prediction for different frequency domains. Algorithms, 14(8), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/a14080251

Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486

Fry, J., y Ibiloye, O. (2023). Towards a taxonomy for crypto assets. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2207266

Georgoula, I., Pournarakis, D., Bilanakos, C., Sotiropoulos, D. N., y Giaglis, G. M. (2015). Using Time-Series and Sentiment Analysis to Detect the Determinants of Bitcoin Prices. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2607167

He, B., y Eisuke, K. (2021). The Application of Sequential Generative Adversarial Networks for Stock Price Prediction. The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, 15, 455–470. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12626-021-00097-2

Ivanovski, K., y Hailemariam, A. (2023). Forecasting the stock-cryptocurrency relationship: Evidence from a dynamic GAS model. International Review of Economics and Finance, 86(February 2022), 97–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.03.008

Kjærland, F., Khazal, A., Krogstad, E., Nordstrøm, F., y Oust, A. (2018). An Analysis of Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11(4), 63. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11040063

Kang, T. S., Joo, M. I., Kim, B. S., y Lee, T. G. (2022, February). Blockchain-based Lightweight Transaction Process Modeling and Development. In 2022 24th International Conference on Advanced Communication Technology (ICACT) (pp. 113-118). IEEE.Lahiani, A., Jeribi, A., y Boukef Jlassi, N. (2021). Nonlinear tail dependence in cryptocurrency and stock market returns: The role of Bitcoin futures. Research in International Business and Finance, 56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101351

Malkiel, B. G. (2004). Models of stock market predictability. Journal of Financial Research, 27(4), 449–459. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.2004.00102.x

Martínez, J., Améstica-Rivas, L., Parisi, A., y Gurrola, C. (2021). Predictor alternativo del precio de los activos financieros. El caso de la plata y el oro. Oikos Polis, Revista Latinoamericana, 30–54. http://www.scielo.org.bo/pdf/rlces/v6n2/v6n2_a04.pdf

Mohali, A., y Palm, F. (2021). Efecto de indicadores económicos adelantados sobre la predicción de precios de criptomonedas. Visión Gerencial, 1(21), 59–68. https://doi.org/10.53766/vigeren/2021.21.01.03

Parisi-Fernández, A., Améstica-Rivas, L., y Chileno-Trujillo, Ó. (2019). Predicción de variaciones en el precio del petróleo con el modelo de optimización ARIMA, innovando con fuerza bruta operacional. Tec Empresarial, 13(1), 53–70. https://doi.org/10.18845/te.v13i1.4302

Parisi, A., Parisi, F., y Díaz, D. (2006). Modelos de algoritmos genéticos y redes neuronales en la predicción de indices bursátiles asiáticos. Cuadernos de Economia - Latin American Journal of Economics, 43(128), 251–284. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41951551

Shen, D., Urquhart, A., y Wang, P. (2019). Does twitter predict Bitcoin? Economics Letters, 174, 118–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.11.007

Smales, L. A. (2019). Bitcoin as a safe haven: Is it even worth considering? Finance Research Letters, 30, 385–393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.11.002

Sun, X., Liu, M., y Sima, Z. (2020). A novel cryptocurrency price trend forecasting model based on LightGBM. Finance Research Letters, 32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.12.032

Yao, Y., Li, X., y Li, Q. (2022). A Comparison on LSTM Deep Learning Method and Random Walk Model Used on Financial and Medical Applications: An Example in COVID-19 Development Prediction. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4383245

Ye, Z., Wu, Y., Chen, H., Pan, Y., y Jiang, Q. (2022). A Stacking Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Twitter Comments on Bitcoin. Mathematics, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/math10081307