Supplementary Files
Keywords
National economy.
Public revenue
State budget
fiscal policy
taxation
How to Cite
Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between the tax burden and tax revenue in Ecuador using a polynomial regression model and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, estimating the Laffer curve for the period 2003–2022. Stationarity and cointegration tests validated the long-term relationships, revealing that the tax burden increases per capita tax revenue, but that, at higher tax rates, this effect becomes negative, as demonstrated by a significant quadratic term. Optimal quarterly tax burden levels of 8.42% for VAT and 8.34% for income tax were identified. Compared to recent data, where the tax burden for VAT is 7.1% and for income tax is 7.42% of GDP in 2023, it is concluded that it is important to strengthen tax revenues in line with the dynamism of the private sector, with adjustments to the tax burden within optimal limits to maximize public revenue.
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